Let's be honest. When it comes to economics, there is not a lot of local turmoil left. 'Ole Tip O'neill quipped that, "all politics is local", and that may be true. But these days, all turmoil is global, especially turmoil that happens in the oil patch of the mid-east and Africa. Of course, monetary policy decisions made here, in the financial capitol of the US, New York City, have global ramifications as well: like the decision to use "quantitative easing" (creating new money) to preserve the status quo and put off economic accountability for a little while longer. The result of all that new (digital) money was a rise in commodity prices, that raised food (and oil) prices, that caused riots and unrest and the fall of a couple of governments and civil war and death in a couple more countries and raised the spectre of unrest and civil war in half a dozen more mid-east and North African countries, which, of course, raised oil prices some more. All of this is not to take anything away from the Tunisian vegetable merchant, who, after being slapped in the face for not having a vendor's license and laughed at by local bureaucrats when he complained, set himself on fire on the steps of a Tunisian City Hall. He was the initiator. Piles of leaked documents showing the extreme malfeasance, cynicism, and cronyism of the world's governments (It appears that many governments NEVER tell the truth about ANYTHING, actually preferring perpetual lying, with all it's intricasies, to the simple truth: making them PATHOLOGICAL liars.) formed the booster. As always, years of corruption, tyranny, arrogance and incompetence served as fuel, slow to ignite, but burning furiously once enough energy and oxygen were applied . Half the world set alight, just to have one more bonus season, one more good summer of yachting off Rhode Island...
What does all this mean to us working stiffs, other than the fact that mid-east terrorists now have ANOTHER reason to justify killing us and, soon, politicians may have ANOTHER reason to send our kids off to war? Well, it means all that. But the other implication is that the quantitaive easing failed. It wasn't meant to raise commodity prices, food prices and gas prices, cause civil war and death and falling governments (though all of that was predictable). It was meant to "stimulate the economy" into something called "economic recovery". Of course, all that money was created and put out there without answering the question, "Recovery to what?" That is why quantitative easing was doomed to fail before the digital cash was stroked in to existence. The broader implication is that the Fed failed and accountability (the noun) is approaching faster than the Fourth of July. You see, the Fed can only do a few things. They can print money, or not print money. They can raise or lower interest rates. That used to be all that they could do. Lately, they get to decide who gets the money that they create. This is a new power, and, of course, anybody outside Original Banksta status is excluded from this exclusive Club of Armani-clad Beggars. And that's one reason (among hundreds of reasons) that QE failed...Bankstas took the money and began playing the markets with it, running the price of a loaf of bread up nearly 25% at the local grocery store and gas prices up 50% in just a few weeks. Apparently somebody neglected to tell them to "get out there and stimulate" the economy. They probably would have asked, "stimulate the economy to what?"...causing an awkward moment.
So, the QE approach failed. What does that mean? It means that there will be another round of quantiative easing aimed at controlling the deficit by printing money, causing blistering inflation...that's bad. Or, it means that the Fed will raise interest rates to attract money to pay the deficit. Rising interest rates will kill the housing market even deader (timeless prose, I would'nt change a word) killing the demand side of the housing market and make doing business and creating jobs more expensive (causing deflation)...equally bad.
So, what are we gonna do? Well, we are gonna be ready to hear the news that everything that we ever worked for; pension and retirement, house (value) and savings has all gone up in a puff of digital economic smoke. The more ready that you are to hear the news, the easier it will be. Let me ask you, how much of your pension has ACTUALLY BEEN SAVED? That's how much there is NOW (everything else is make-believe). In a few weeks, or a few months, that will be gone, if you leave it in the care of a banker/broker. If, in 1979, I promised to pay you twenty gazillion dollars in the year 2014, and in the year 2011 I haven't saved a penny, you can pretty much bet that I'm not gonna have the dough in 2014, and neither will the government and neither will your pension fund. The government has one option, and that's to print the money, causing blistering inflation. They can BS about "selling the bonds that they saved", but nobody is gonna buy those bonds. The government will have to buy them and print the money.
So let it go. Like a friend too long on a ventilator, it's time to pull the plug and start rebuilding our lives without our friend. Remember who we are and who you are. Remember where we came from. Set your eyes on a better horizon and start moving forward in the company of family and good friends and a community of decent people that you may have to create from scratch. Time is a precious resource, use it wisely.
Peace