Homestead Journal

War With Iran: What's In It For Us

 The electronic ink was barely dry on my Predictions for 2012, when those pesky Iranians decided to take an American hostage and sentence him to death for spying. The American in question, Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, a US Marine Corp veteran of Iranian descent was, by all accounts, completely honest with Iranian Immigration Officials when he applied for a visa to visit his Grandmothers in Iran. After months of solitary confinement and a "confession", a show trial was held and Mr. Hekmati was sentenced to death. Analysts who know about such matters have posited that the Iranians snatched and convicted Hekmati in an effort to increase their leverage in upcoming nuclear negotiations...Interesting negotiating strategy, I must remember this trick the next time that I buy a truck (if I ever buy another truck). The difference is, of course, that car dealers DESERVE to be taken hostage by folks who are trying to avoid being gouged during car buying negotiations. A person who shows up at your door, is completely honest with you about his past, and asks to see his Grandmother(s) most definitely should be stopped at your door, or allowed to pass in peace. Make your choice. Duplicity is both dishonorable and unnecessary.

The Hekmati snatch and the latest Iranian warning to stay out of the Persian Gulf( or was it to knock a block of wood off their shoulder?) along with their headlong rush to split the atom and warnings that the next war with the US will be played out in the streets of New York is enough to increase my personal pucker factor a notch or two. My understanding is that the sanctions being imposed on Iran include a ban on the import of gasoline and diesel. It seems that after thirty-three years of revolutionary activity within Iran, the Iranians have neglected to build a refinery to refine all the oil that they produce. Nuclear weapons and regional espionage/terror organizations? Check. An essential oil refinery that can keep your country from being forced into a devastating war with the West? Not so much. What do countries do when we cut off their gasoline and diesel supply? Anybody ever heard of a place called Pearl Harbor?

Oh well, nothing to do but prep and, possibly be ready to move if you have a family, particularly children, in one of the major cities- especially of that city is New York, or Washington, DC, or has a substantial Muslim population (they tend to think globally, but act locally). The chances of the US and Israel going to war (even a limited war) with Iran and NOT having some sort of retaliatory strike within the US are very slim. New York and Washington have been named as targets. That doesn't mean that they won't strike in other places, as the targetted East Coast cities must be hardening themselves as I type.

What else does all this mean? Well, it means that, at least, thousands of people are gonna die, maybe some of them here. Of course, there will be an immediate spike in gas prices, $5 and change seems to be the going guesstimate, though $6 and change is possible--we saw $5.69 gas right here in my hometown after a hurricane a couple of summer ago. If the war lasts along enough, we could see shortages in stores and warehouses as shipping becomes prohibitively expensive, and a terrible downturn in the economy. First, all those newly hired retail clerks, servers and couriers will be shown the door, and then prohibitively high energy prices will do what prohibitively high energy prices do and the economy will be locked up like a game of twister played with Crazy Glue instead of baby oil...everybody here has played Twister with baby oil, right?  Well, this may be your chance, as stay-at-home activities will be very popular. I predict a baby boom starting nine months after the first terror attack on a major US City.

The time to stock the pantry is now. The time to lay up a bit of fuel: a can or three of gas, a couple of bottles of propane, a bit more firewood; A bicycle, even an inexpensive one, and a few spare inner tubes and a pump; Batteries, a good shortwave receiver; Friends to call and someone to play Twister by candle light (even if the power is working, f___k 'em, have some fun...:). Stay aware, but don't be paranoid. Don't spread fear. Spread courage instead. They can kill us, but they can't eat us.

 

Peace

The Stuff In Your Pockets, The Shoes On Your Feet: Dressing For Security

I love my Weejun loafers, but I almost never wear them any more.The soles are too slick and they don't offer protection from weather and debris--like broken glass and cement--in an emergency. It could be something as simple as a flat tire, or as serious as a terrorist bombing that makes it necessary to walk insted of ride and to move without slipping, sliding or falling.

A tough pair of (laundered and pressed) khaki work pants over a pair of cordovan hiking boots has taken the place of loafers and wool dress slacks. A wilderness systems belt, or a double-thick leather belt from a local maker and an earth toned, cotton long sleeve shirt round out the ensemble. There's Leatherman wave on the belt and a fifteen-year-old Benchmade AFCK clipped to the front pocket. There's lighter and a key ring in the same pocket with a little Streamlight flashlight, a Silva Companion compass, a P38 can opener and a Fox 40 whistle. I guess it goes without saying, there's a cell phone. I try to have my Surefire 6P with me most times. I could carry a lot more stuff, but I wouldn't be able to carry it all every day, so I have hit on the most essential items. A sweater, hat, coat, gloves and rain jacket (Gortexesque) are close by this time of year. The raingear is always close by, I really use it alot. A yard sale sleeping bag rides in the trunk with the bag. Guns and pepper gas? Maybe, maybe not...I'm not saying. Gas mask and plastic sheeting?...Come on, y'all, stay away from enclosed spaces in big cities. Don't be near a target, you (probably) won't be a target...that stuff is pretty unlikely any way. Concentrate on being ready for the most likey scenarios and let the Lord and your common sense keep you alive when you can't have gear (News flash:you can't walk around with a gas mask and chem suit, so try not to worry so much, there's plenty of likely trouble to be ready for).

Some Good May Come From Gas Fracking After All

Ohio has been hit by a 4.0 earthquake and USA Today is reporting that the experts believe that the quake may be related to gas fracking, the process of injecting water under high pressure into the earth, fracturing the stone of the Earth's crust and freeing the gas so that it may be harvested and burned just as fast as it can be extracted to keep our 55 inch LCD Tvs working so that we can watch in high definition as our towns are shaken right off the map by the Earth's convulsions at having been fractured, from the western corner of Virginia all the way through West Virginia and Pennsylvania along the long, narrow spine of the Appalachians. The drinking water in wells is often tainted by the process, but don't worry Mr. Homeowner, the gas company will haul water to your house. In fact they some times haul both potable and non-potable water to people's houses. They're very nice about it, and will continue to haul water to your house right up until the moment that they have gotten what they want from your land. Then they'll quit hauling water. You'll dial the corporate phone number and discover that it's been disconnected. Then you'll visit the corporate offices and find that the corporation has filed papers in court called bankruptcy papers. All the promises that they made will be what is called null and void. You'll go home and it will dawn on you, "Holy shit, we own a house and land with no drinkable water. That makes our place, gulp, worth less, if not worthless." Then you'll look at the check that they cut you and call the bank and ask how much of that money is left, because that's how much money that you have to start a new life somewhere with drinking water...you can't live in a place with no water and you probably can't sell it, either. If you bought a new 4X4 and a pile of Chinese electronics with your mineral rights money, well, at least you have a way to haul water home from Wally World and something to distract you from thinking about how screwed  you are.

I know, I promised an uptick, some bright news from the fracking front, and here it is: With the earth's crust deeply fractured under high pressure from Virginia through Pennsylvania, there is a possibility that Wall Street will slide into the Atlantic ocean. I know it's slim, but it's all we've got.